On Saturday, November 22, 2025, at 4:15 PM ET, the South Carolina Gamecocks will host the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, South Carolina — a game that feels less like a rivalry and more like a reckoning. Despite entering the season finale with a 3-7 record and five straight losses, South Carolina is a 24.5-point favorite. The numbers don’t lie, but they also don’t tell the whole story. ESPN’s SP+ analytics model, developed by Bill Connelly, projects a 34-19 final score — a win that still leaves Coastal Carolina covering the spread. And that’s where things get weird.
Numbers That Don’t Add Up
South Carolina’s offense averages just 20.7 points per game, ranking 117th nationally. Their defense? A respectable 48th, holding opponents to 23 points. Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, scores 25.7 points per game — better than the Gamecocks — but gives up nearly 30. Both teams have turned the ball over a lot: South Carolina 13 times, Coastal 16. Yet ESPN’s model gives the Gamecocks an 84% chance to win. Why? Because SP+ doesn’t just look at points. It weighs efficiency, strength of schedule, and situational performance. And in those metrics, South Carolina’s defense and special teams — ranked 22nd nationally — tip the scales.
Here’s the twist: Coastal Carolina’s offense runs the ball 57% of the time, averaging 194 yards per game — the 31st-best ground attack in the country. But their passing game? A disaster. Just 154 yards per game. That’s why analysts like Winners and Whiners say the Chanticleers “have a hard time keeping up.” They’re one-dimensional. And South Carolina’s front seven, despite a rough season, has been consistently stout against the run.
Who’s Playing? Who’s Not?
Coastal Carolina’s season took a brutal turn when starting quarterback Samari Collier suffered an injury in their 45-40 loss to Georgia Southern. Hero Sports reports he’s unlikely to play. Without him, the Chanticleers’ offense becomes even more predictable. Backup quarterbacks have combined for just 12 completions in their last two games. That’s not a recipe for covering a 24-point spread.
South Carolina, meanwhile, is playing for pride — and maybe a little redemption. Their 31-30 loss to Texas A&M wasn’t just a defeat; it was a heartbreaker that ended any hope of a bowl game. Five straight losses. Last in the SEC in offensive efficiency. But they’re still 48 spots ahead of Coastal Carolina in the SP+ rankings. That’s not a fluke. That’s a system that’s been grinding for years, even when the scoreboard doesn’t reflect it.
The Spread Is the Story
Here’s the real drama: Everyone thinks Coastal Carolina will cover. ESPN’s 34-19 projection means the Chanticleers win by 15 — easily covering the 24.5-point line. Fox Sports’ implied score? 37-13. That’s a 24-point win. SportsGambler.com says South Carolina has a 97% chance to win — but also notes the underdog is available at -100 to cover +23.5. Even Hero Sports, which picks South Carolina to win, expects Coastal to cover the 24-point spread and the game to go under 49.5 total points.
It’s a rare alignment: the favorite is expected to win by a comfortable margin — but not *that* comfortable. The over/under is set between 49.5 and 53.5. ESPN’s 53 total points lands right on the edge. The market’s betting on a low-scoring, grinding game — not a blowout. That’s the quiet tension beneath all the numbers.
Why This Game Matters Beyond the Box Score
For Coastal Carolina, this isn’t just about pride. It’s about momentum. They’re 5-2 in the Sun Belt, sitting second in the East, two games behind James Madison. A win here — even a narrow one — keeps their conference title hopes alive before their final showdown with JMU. They’ve won four in a row before losing to Georgia Southern. That resilience can’t be ignored.
For South Carolina, it’s the final chapter before the Palmetto Bowl. Shane Beamer’s team has been battered — emotionally and physically. A win here, even if it’s ugly, would snap a five-game skid. And for fans? It’s a chance to see something other than disappointment. The Gamecocks have played hard all season. They just haven’t won.
Both teams have covered the spread in exactly five games this season. That’s not random. It’s a sign of volatility. Neither team is dominant. Both are capable of surprising you.
What’s Next?
After Saturday, South Carolina faces Clemson in the annual Palmetto Bowl — a rivalry that’s always emotional, always unpredictable. Coastal Carolina gets James Madison — the Sun Belt’s best team — in what could be their final shot at a conference title. Whoever wins this game? They’ll enter their next matchup with something to prove.
Don’t be fooled by the point spread. This isn’t a coronation. It’s a test. And sometimes, the most compelling games aren’t the ones with the highest scores — they’re the ones where everyone expects the favorite to win… but nobody’s sure by how much.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does ESPN’s model favor South Carolina despite their losing record?
ESPN’s SP+ model evaluates efficiency, not just wins and losses. South Carolina ranks 33rd in defensive efficiency and 22nd in special teams — both top-25 nationally — despite their 3-7 record. Their opponents have been tougher, and their turnover margin (+6) is among the best in the SEC. The model rewards consistency in key areas, not just scoreboard results.
Can Coastal Carolina actually cover a 24.5-point spread?
Yes — and multiple analysts believe they will. Even with Samari Collier out, Coastal’s ground game can chew clock and limit South Carolina’s possessions. If they avoid turnovers and force a few punts, a 20-point loss is plausible. Their last four wins came by an average of 11 points — they know how to stay competitive against better teams.
What’s the significance of the under/over being set at 53.5?
The 53.5 total reflects a belief that South Carolina’s defense will contain Coastal’s offense, while the Gamecocks’ own offense won’t explode. With both teams averaging under 26 points per game and a combined 29 turnovers, a low-scoring, possession-heavy game is expected. ESPN’s 53-point projection suggests an under hit — which aligns with most analysts’ predictions.
How does Samari Collier’s injury change Coastal Carolina’s chances?
Collier’s absence removes Coastal’s only real weapon in the passing game and their most experienced leader. Backup QBs have combined for just 12 completions in the last two games. Without him, the offense becomes almost entirely run-based — which plays right into South Carolina’s strength: stopping the run. The Chanticleers’ chance of covering drops significantly without him.
Why is this game important for South Carolina beyond the win-loss record?
For Shane Beamer’s program, this is about momentum heading into the Palmetto Bowl. Five straight losses have eroded fan confidence. A win — even a narrow one — helps reset the narrative. It also gives younger players a chance to finish the season with pride. And in a season defined by setbacks, ending with a win against a conference rival matters more than the point total.
What’s the historical context of South Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina?
This is only the second meeting between the two teams. South Carolina won the first, 38-10, in 2019. That game was played in Columbia, too, and featured a dominant Gamecocks defense — similar to this year’s profile. Coastal Carolina has improved dramatically since then, but they’ve never beaten a Power Five team on the road. This game is their best shot yet.
